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North American Food Systems Outlook

In North America, our food systems are deeply interconnected and vulnerable to looming environmental, geopolitical and financial changes. We must consider how our food systems can adapt to new challenges, understanding the complexity of the system, the levers for change and the trade-offs that must be managed as we work towards resilience.

In early 2025 AFI convened a workshop that brought together experts working in policy, industry, academia and society from Canada, the United States and Mexico to better understand the risks and opportunities facing our food system.

What we heard report

Listening Report

Following the Stress Testing the North American Food System event that took place February 2-4, 2025, we have assembled a “what we heard” report that outlines the changes participants cited as being most impactful to the North American Food System between now and 2040.

These include looking at threats from environmental, geopolitical and financial perspectives. Some of the most anticipated threats that were top of mind include water scarcity, trade wars and tariffs, soil health, managing agri-food pathogens and the loss of biodiversity. Some of the most anticipated opportunities include regenerative agriculture, supporting policies and investments, productivity gains through technology and increased investment in agricultural innovations.

Read the “What We Heard” report
Read the “What We Heard” report

Potential Threats

Environmental

Our food and agriculture system will face a variety of environmental challenges, many of which are expected to become more severe and frequent over the next decades. These include water scarcity, groundwater depletion and drought which complicate water governance and access. Globalization has led to the unprecedented spread of invasive species, pests, and diseases to new regions, including zoonotic diseases such as avian influenza that may impact human health. Variability in climate, including fluctuating temperatures, wildfires and extreme storms, has contributed to the loss of crops, as well as impacts on livestock and biodiversity in agricultural ecosystems. Soil health and water quality may be impacted by some agricultural practices as well as climate events, but regenerative practices, when paired with technology and incentives, may offer solutions that build sustainability and resilience in agricultural systems.

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Geopolitical

Tariffs and volatility in international trade are key geopolitical threats that threaten our deeply interconnected agri-food systems, and stand to increase the cost for food producers, processors, and consumers – with the greatest impact likely to hit those most vulnerable. Changes to migration and labour will also change the way we produce our food, and while technologies may help us to address some labour force shortages, access to these technologies is not always equitable. To address these challenges, countries may need to explore diversified export markets and build local food production systems. 

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Financial

Food producers, processors and retailers are facing increasing volatility – rising input costs, changes to the cost of land, weather-related crop disruptions, exchange rate fluctuations, and rising pressures to keep food prices low – that challenge their financial well-being. Meanwhile, farmers face pressure to transition to more regenerative or sustainable practices, but this transition carries costs and risks as well, which can be especially impactful for small and mid-sized farmers, as well as young and minority farmers. Although some financial resources exist, some actors in the food system may have difficulty accessing credit or incentive programs, and there are limited amounts of venture capital for agri-food initiatives.

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Continuing The Conversation

Sustainable Food Systems for Canada

The future of food depends on a resilient food system that can feed a growing population while protecting the health of the planet. Learn more about the projects that Arrell Food Institute is leading or a partner on that is focused on a more sustainable future.

Learn more
Learn more